Fred Wilson, on _Android and iOS_:
But I find myself rooting hard for Apple now. I sense the danger they are in and I don't want either smartphone OS to be so dominant that we lose the level playing field we have now. It's very important for startups, innovation, and an open mobile ecosystem for all.
It is true. Apple has been dominant for too long and in some ways Android is really beginning to creep on their turf. There are many layers to the smartphone market onion but I look at three things when I try to determine who is winning: market share, profit, number of official apps.
Each of these three categories are important and any single company can focus on any combination of the three and still be "winning" or at least competing. I think Apple has focused on design quality and number of official apps as their primary ways to maintain profitshare. And they earn the lion's share of the money being earned in the smartphone market. I think Android has focused on low cost, "open" offerings to capture market share. And they're obviously doing a great job at growing.
By capturing market share, as Wilson mentioned in his post, Android will now end up capturing the official applications it was missing out on before because Android is where the people are. Or, at least as many people or more than on iOS. Wilson posits that iOS and Android are near parity. I think he's right. And I think we're about to see a shift in perception in Android as more and more official apps are made either first or at the same time as they are for iOS. See: Dropbox, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram. Imagine if Instagram was made today and made only for Android. Something like that could happen any day.
Because of my work I have an iPhone 5, a Samsung Galaxy S4, a Motorola Razr, and a Nokia Lumia 920 running Windows Phone on my desk. The iPhone 5 has been my daily use phone since June 29, 2007. The Samsung Galaxy S4 is an amazing technical achievement - with the eye watching and all - but overall I am not in love with Android. Certainly not as much as my friend Paul. It is just too busy, too much going on, there always seems to be so much running. Android is far from simple. Not to mention that the manufacturers and telcos end up adding so much junk to the phone it can seem hard to navigate through. The S4 came with three browsers and four ways to buy music pre-installed! I realize this isn't Android's "fault" but as a consumer it is certainly confusing.
Regarding Windows Phone
Windows Phone is probably not going to take off if they haven't found a way to do it already. But can I just say this? Windows Phone is a much better competitor to iOS than Android currently is. It is clean, simple to use, vastly different than iOS (which is good since Android and iOS just bite off each other with each release), and really fun to play with. The problem? Official apps.
Most of the applications on Windows Phone are absolutely abysmal if they aren't the official apps. The Instagram apps end up getting their photos deleted from Instagram because they use Private APIs. Not to mention that when compared to Instagram they're terrible. The Dropbox apps, which aren't official, are simply unusable. All of the official apps, however, such as Twitter, Spotify, and others are superior to their iOS counterparts in a number of ways. I love the Spotify app on Windows Phone.
As the smartphone market matures from people buying their first smartphone to people buying their second, third, and fourth smartphones people are going to come to expect the quality they find on iOS and now on Android. The official applications are, in general, amazingly well-made and work great. If someone gets a Windows Phone as their second or third smartphone they are simply going to think that the applications on it are poor.
I think Windows Phone "the OS" is great. But I think Windows Phone "the business" doesn't have a focus. They aren't focused on market share by offering amazingly cheap hardware. They aren't focused on having the best official apps. And they aren't focused on profit. I don't know what Windows Phone stands for besides Microsoft simply having an OS in the mobile space. And I certainly don't see enough ads for Windows Phone.
I wish Windows Phone had a better shot. I love the Lumia. If it had a few more official applications on it I'd switch to it from my iPhone 5 in a heartbeat. I haven't tried the Lumia 1020 but if it is even better than the 920 I could see myself switching in spite of the application debacle. But I don't know if Windows Phone has a chance. I don't know what they should focus on to get to parity with Android and iOS and I don't even know if there is room in the market - large as it may be - for a third horse.
I agree with Wilson that Android and iOS are near parity but I'd love to see Windows Phone become the third horse in the smartphone OS race.