Colin Devroe

Reverse Engineer. Blogger. Chills easily.

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Richard MacManus’s tech predictions

Richard MacManus attempts to predict some things for 2018:

We’ll finally get a killer app for AR in 2018. Maybe hope springs eternal, but I’d love to see an AR app with real utility – not just a game like Pokemon Go.

I suppose it matters how you define “killer app”. For me a killer app would be when “most” people begin to use AR somehow. And, if that is the definition then I would say AR already had multiple killer apps. Pokemon Go, Snapchat, Instagram, Google Maps, all of these are excellent uses of AR and hundreds of millions of people use them.

Mixed reality is tough to segment and define. When I talk about AR I think I’m mainly talking about moving our computing experience away from our screens and into the real world. I would love to have my workspace no longer be tied to my work office. To have any size screen I want, wherever I need it. As I’ve written, I don’t think that will happen for another 9 years. But perhaps that is a different form of AR and AR has already “made it”.

I wonder what MacManus’s definition of “killer app” is?

Colin Walker’s tech predictions

Colin Walker answered the call. Interesting list. Here is just one:

Mark Zuckerberg reveals he has political ambitions after all. Not wanting to be criticised he “does a Trump” and supposedly signs over all control of Facebook while making a run for the White House.

I don’t think Zuckerberg will ever leave Facebook. Not even to be President.

But that’s the point of these lists. Let’s see what happens!

Noah Read’s tech predictions

Prompted somewhat by my technology prediction time capsule, Noah Read takes a stab at what he thinks we’ll see (or, won’t see) in 2018.

He has some interesting takes. Most of which I agree with.

I do not think I agree with this take, though:

AR will be a passing craze, while at the same time making certain niche use cases much better than they’ve ever been. I just hope those use cases are more useful than funny animated masks on social networks.

AR may indeed be a passing craze but I don’t think that will be determined within 2018. It will take much longer to know that. And I don’t think the use cases for AR will be niche. For instance, I do believe my future workspace will be “in AR” rather than VR. (Or, perhaps this is my own wishful thinking). And I think there are enough people like me that would want this to say it is larger than just a niche use.

Of course, maybe I’m wrong and Ready Player One will be the reality.

Regarding self-driving technology, though, Read says:

Problems of infrastructure, distance, regulation, public opinion, and human nature will infuriate utopians who would like a Jetson’s future today, but these are real issues that will slow adoption in the real world. It’s coming, but current estimates seem optimistic.

This I agree with. Obviously.

Many of us underestimate how long change happens. The change we want we want immediately.  Personally, I want self-driving to become mainstream yesterday. But I feel we’ve still got nearly a decade of manual cars and drivers to deal with before things take off.

More people should write down their predictions. And not just for 2018 but for the next 20 years. It is a fun mental exercise and I’m certain it will be fun to look back upon every few years.

To that end I randomly challenge Colin Walker, Matt MullenwegManton Reece, and Mike Haynes to jot down at least 5 predictions for the next 20 years.

Dan Kimbrough on several trends for 2017

Dan Kimbrough touches on several trends he thinks will continue in 2017 such as this bit on AR/VR:

2017 will see AR & VR make great strides to becoming how we experience and interact with the world around us.

I agree we’ll see great strides in this area. I’m especially bullish on AR. But I still believe we’re a long way from it being “great”.

On live streaming video he says:

2017 will be the year we see live streaming go from a novelty for the masses to a tool for the business savvy.

I’m 100% on board with Dan here. Live streaming video has seen steady growth in terms of viewership and capability for nearly a decade but we are just now seeing this as a ubiquitous feature in nearly every communication service. Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Slack, Messenger, iMessage, Instagram, etc. all have a live streaming video feature now. With just a phone you can reach your audience. It is an extraordinary time for that medium.

Back to Dan on personal branding:

2017 will be the year that brands willing to showcase themselves, their voice and their personality, will dominate.

He references my friend Gary’s daily vlog. Gary isn’t the first to do this, not by a long shot, but he may be the first to do it with a camera man (the excellent DRock) and several editors – giving his vlog a very specific feel and an “ease” for him personally that makes it sustainable. One of the most popular vloggers on YouTube, Casey Neistat, recently hung up his hat. It wears you out.

I’m uncertain if we’ll see this segment of the market grow too much, however, I do think we’ll see entire company brands built on top of personalities more in 2017 than we did in 2016. Think Kim Kardashian, Jay Z, Jessica Alba, Kate Hudson – each of these individuals have built companies worth hundreds of millions and billions of dollars on top of personal brands. We’ll see a lot more of this as social media gives people, as well as companies, enormous capability to tell their story.

And finally, Dan on video:

2017 will be one of the last years to adopt video as part of your marketing strategy if you want to survive.

His urgency isn’t unwarranted. Now is better than ever to jump into using video as a marketing tool. Both live and well-edited pieces. However, I think we’re going to see video grow, and not shrink, come the next decade. Video formats and Internet connectivity will both improve to a point where video will be as “expensive” to view as images are now. As it stands, some people are limited by their mobile carrier plan and their device’s capability to display rich video content on-the-go. These limitations will disappear over the next 5 years for most of the developed world which will only expand the video viewing market.

Great list of predictions from Dan. I’m glad he shared them on his blog.