Comments on: Predicting the weather is no easy task http://cdevroe.com/notes/weather-predicting/ by Colin Devroe Thu, 12 Apr 2012 16:52:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: howard hall http://cdevroe.com/notes/weather-predicting/#comment-272862 howard hall Fri, 13 Feb 2009 19:57:38 +0000 http://cdevroe.com/notes/weather-predicting/#comment-272862 I had heard of a ratio like this before, but (apparently like a lot of people) I had never really given it much thought when evaluating a meteorologist's performance. I suppose most of us would rather have someone to blame when things to go as we expect. That said, I do like the idea of rating the coming snowfall, rather than predicting in inches -- but I'm fairly certain even that would result in complaints from the peanut gallery. I had heard of a ratio like this before, but (apparently like a lot of people) I had never really given it much thought when evaluating a meteorologist’s performance. I suppose most of us would rather have someone to blame when things to go as we expect.

That said, I do like the idea of rating the coming snowfall, rather than predicting in inches — but I’m fairly certain even that would result in complaints from the peanut gallery.

]]> By: Daniel Nicolas http://cdevroe.com/notes/weather-predicting/#comment-101365 Daniel Nicolas Fri, 18 Jan 2008 10:34:17 +0000 http://cdevroe.com/notes/weather-predicting/#comment-101365 I took geography last semester in school and i learned that the weather predictions ...are just that. They're based on data from similar events that have happened before in the similar conditions. 60% chance of rain means that given these conditions, 60% of the time it has rained when these conditions were present. No one can predict the future, but you can sure be ready to shovel your way out of a blizzard by looking to the past for anecdotal and very probable solutions to problems similar to yours, while taking in the new and adapting to the changes life throws at you. I took geography last semester in school and i learned that the weather predictions …are just that. They’re based on data from similar events that have happened before in the similar conditions.

60% chance of rain means that given these conditions, 60% of the time it has rained when these conditions were present.

No one can predict the future, but you can sure be ready to shovel your way out of a blizzard by looking to the past for anecdotal and very probable solutions to problems similar to yours, while taking in the new and adapting to the changes life throws at you.

]]> By: Zach Hale http://cdevroe.com/notes/weather-predicting/#comment-101205 Zach Hale Thu, 17 Jan 2008 23:43:29 +0000 http://cdevroe.com/notes/weather-predicting/#comment-101205 That's quite an honest post to make by the weather man. I commend his posting that. I have never really thought about it but it makes complete sense. Too bad for him people have expectations of him culturally that he can't prevent. As you mention with emails people expect to get confirmation emails no matter what -- and they should. What I draw from this is that we should be careful not to set too high of expectations and for those that we do have to meet, to do our best and chug along. That’s quite an honest post to make by the weather man. I commend his posting that.

I have never really thought about it but it makes complete sense.

Too bad for him people have expectations of him culturally that he can’t prevent. As you mention with emails people expect to get confirmation emails no matter what — and they should. What I draw from this is that we should be careful not to set too high of expectations and for those that we do have to meet, to do our best and chug along.

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